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Supreme Court Decision to Reverse Roe v. Wade to Galvanize Democrat Base Ahead of Midterms - Experts_我的网站

一 |     　　随着上市公司半年报的密集披露，越来越多百亿私募重仓股浮出水面。　　据三方机构统计，截至2026年8月21日，已有27家百亿私募出现在50家已披露半年报的上市公司前十大流通股东名单中，合计持股市值达264.12亿元。

二 | 　　从调仓动向来看，百亿私募二季度持仓变化较大，其中新进29只个股，增持5只，另有9只个股持股数量不变，减持个股7只。    Last week, the predominantly conservative US Supreme Court overruled the precedent established by the Roe v. Wade and decided that states may regulate the practice of abortion. The Roe v. Wade decision upheld pregnant women’s right to seek an abortion without government restrictions. A decision in the 1992 case of Planned Parenthood v. Casey largely upheld the Roe ruling.,Effect on Midterms,In November, US citizens will go to the polls in what will be the first midterm election of the Joe Biden administration as well as a referendum of sorts on the current US president's performance. The Republicans have been projected to win back the House of Representatives and the Senate as well, as the public has been increasingly frustrated by the issues such as inflation, crime, education and jobs. The recent ruling, however, could potentially give the democrats a shot in the arm by generating excitement among their voters.,"It will certainly galvanize the Democrats' base, for sure, it will help them to raise campaign funds and it may - perhaps - make some races more difficult for Republicans, especially in the suburbs among women voters," Robert Singh, a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London, said, adding that most voters will still be focused on other issues and he still expects the Republicans to win both houses of the Congress.,This sentiment was echoed by Ziad Munson, a sociology professor and the chair of the department of sociology and anthropology at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania, who also warned that the effect of the decision can be overstated.,"A consistent finding in political science over the last several decades is that the abortion issue, while a potent ideological symbol, seldom is a key policy issue for voters when they cast their votes," Munson explained.,Andrew Wroe, a senior lecturer in American politics at the University of Kent, agreed as well that the issue should help the Democrats, citing the effectiveness of the Republican use of cultural issues for rallying their base.,"The Democratic Party has been less successful in prosecuting the Culture Wars, but this is its great opportunity. Whether it will use it well is a different question, however," Wroe suggested.,At the same time, Christopher Kaczor, the chair of the philosophy department at Loyola Marymount University, is doubtful about the abortion issue having an impact on the US political landscape and helping Democrats to excite their voters.,"I expect that the very small minority of people for whom abortion is the key issue, on both sides, will be energized by this decision, but for most people other political and economic issues will remain more important," Kaczor stated.,New Wave of Protests?,The Supreme Court's decision has triggered a strong reaction on both sides of the issue in the United States, with hundreds of protesters, pro-life and pro-choice, gathering outside the Supreme Court last week following the decision. After the ruling, protests broke out in various US cities, showing a possibility of a nationwide backlash.,"People are angry, distraught, and ready to mobilise. It is difficult to say precisely how long the protests will persist, but it is likely to be some considerable time, given the magnitude of the policy change and the direct and indirect effects it will have on millions of people's lives," Wroe said.,Meanwhile, other experts expressed skepticism regarding the possibility of nationwide protests, including Munson, who drew attention to the fact that "the conservative majority tested for this possibility when they agreed not to stay the implementation of the Texas S.B. 8 law [also known as the Texas Heartbeat Act that bans abortion after detection of an unborn child's heartbeat] earlier this year.","Allowing that law to go into effect was the Court's political trial balloon, and it showed that widespread outrage quickly quieted down after just a few days. The outrage following the formal overturning of Roe v. Wade will last longer, but it is not likely to lead to large-scale consequential protest activity," the sociologist said.,Man Charged With Attempted Murder of LAPD Officers Amid Roe v Wade Protests26 June, 14:51 GMT,Who Judges the Justices?,Over the years, the role of courts in the US social and political life has greatly increased, with the Supreme Court becoming the final arbiter on many hot-button issues, such as same-sex marriage, gun control and abortion. This has been a prominent talking point among conservatives, who have been claiming that this practice undermines the country's constitutional principles, while liberals have been appealing to the notion of the courts standing up for human rights as well as drawing attention to the conservative movement's efforts to train and promote judges who share its principles.,"Both liberals and conservatives have always been supportive of judicial activism, they just want the judiciary to be activist in promoting the issues or outcomes that their side prefers. This despite the fact that conservatives have used 'judicial activism' as a talking point for some time," Munson pointed out.,Kaczor, for his part, drew a distinction between the original Roe decision and the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, insisting that the latter actually corrects a case of judicial activism.,"The Dobbs decision is not accurately portrayed as a case of judicial activism, but rather as the reversal of judicial activism. It was Roe that established a constitutional right for abortion that had no basis in the text, history, or structure of the constitution. The decision of Dobbs undoes this judicial activism," he stated.,Nevertheless, the ruling by the current Supreme Court, which has three justices picked up by former President Donald Trump from a list compiled by the conservative legal organization Federalist Society, is likely to have the Democrats sour on the Supreme Court.,"Democrats are increasingly likely to start talking about illegitimate policy making by the Supreme Court. They will start to complain about judicial activism. But, as noted above, they can use these arguments to mobilize their base and to argue for urgency of electing more Democrats to the Senate, which of course must ratify presidential appointments to the Court," Wroe said, adding that the Democrats can also "begin to legitimately argue that the Senate has an in-built Republican advantage that needs to be addressed via constitutional change.",According to Singh, any Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential race will face the pressure to commit to enlarging and reforming the Supreme Court.,"Whether that happens, though, is another matter. I doubt the Democrats will have sufficient seats in the Senate to overcome a GOP filibuster of court reform proposals. But the fact that the conservatives number six now on the Court sets up an on-going problem for Democrats, and more conflict to come," Singh concluded.。（备注：同一家上市公司被多家私募持仓时，在统计中会被重复计算）　　这些个股被百亿私募买入　　私募排排网统计显示，从个股层面来看，鸿仕达、宏裕包材、海康威视均获得不少于2家百亿私募重仓。　　其中鸿仕达吸引到聚鸣投资、上海歌汝私募和南土资产3家百亿私募重仓，持股市值分别为2.48亿元、2.35亿元和1.27亿元，而且均为二季度新进。　　宏裕包材吸引到千宜投资和佳期私募2家百亿私募重仓，持股市值分别为270.76万元和288.41万元，同样均为二季度新进。

三 | 　　海康威视被高毅资产和重阳战略2家百亿私募重仓，持股市值分别为38.65亿元和38.72亿元，但持仓态度则截然不同，重阳战略二季度对海康威视进行了增持，增持数量为786.71万股，高毅资产则对海康威视进行了减持，减持数量为8700万股。　　重仓机械设备行业　　从行业层面来看，百亿私募重仓机械设备行业个股数量最多，包括大族激光、鸿仕达、优利德、中泰股份、*ST冀凯、卓兆点胶、达意隆、*ST威领，其中鸿仕达更是获得3家百亿私募重仓。

四 | 　　其次是汽车行业，该行业有宇通客车、云意电气、华密新材、信质集团、华阳集团5只个股获得百亿私募重仓。　　再次是电子和交通运输，均有4只个股获得百亿私募重仓，其中电子行业个股包括传音控股、则成电子、乐鑫科技、芯朋微。交通运输行业个股包括中原高速、东莞控股、海通发展、大秦铁路。　　高毅资产旗下产品出现在海康威视、安琪酵母、传音控股和北新建材4家已披露半年报的上市公司前十大流通股东名单中，合计持股市值62.85亿元，其中高毅资产持有海康威视市值38.65亿元，成为第一大重仓股。高毅资产二季度增持安琪酵母300万股，持股市值11.40亿元。传音控股和北新建材为高毅资产二季度新进个股，持股数量分别为1750万股和1372.19万股。　　百亿私募重阳战略和重阳投资同属同一实控人，其中重阳战略二季度增持海康威视786.71万股，持股市值为38.72亿元。

五 | 重阳投资旗下产品二季度进入到福元医药、海通发展、华阳集团3家已披露半年报的上市公司前十大流通股东名单中，其中福元医药和海通发展二季度获得重阳投资增持，增持数量分别为269.79万股和127.62万股，增持后的持股市值依次为1.27亿元和0.81亿元，另外重阳投资二季度减持华阳集团14.57万股，减持后的持股市值为0.52亿元。　　险资背景百亿私募国丰兴华（北京）私募和泰康稳行（武汉）私募二季度重仓股揭晓。其中国丰兴华（北京）私募二季度重仓持有贵州茅台、中国电信和大秦铁路，持股市值分别为48.30亿元、39.53亿元和13.76亿元，持股数量均较一季度维持不变。泰康稳行（武汉）私募二季度重仓持有分众传媒和宇通客车，持股市值依次为3.82亿元和3.43亿元，而且均为二季度新进。　　股票私募仓位维持高位　　股票私募仓位近期持续运行在年内高位。私募排排网数据显示，截至2026年8月14日，股票私募仓位指数已达83.97%，较上周微升0.09个百分点。

六 | 尤为值得关注的是，这已是该指数连续第7周稳定在83%以上的年内高水位，显示出私募整体持股意愿强烈。　　大规模私募仓位再创年内新高。私募排排网数据显示，截至2026年8月14日，大规模、中规模和小规模私募的仓位指数分别为88.56%、83.96%和82.63%。其中，大规模私募仓位大幅加仓1.24个百分点，再度刷新年内新高，加仓力度尤为突出。相比之下，中小规模私募虽然整体仓位仍处于年内偏高水位，但较7月已出现较为明显的减仓操作，显示出不同规模私募之间的调仓方向已明显分化。（文章来源：券商中国）。

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